Ethereum Price Holds Above $3800 But Traders Target $16K Target This Cycle – Here’s Why

The Ethereum price has surged 1.01% in the last 24 hours, to trade at $3,843.58, on a 0.01% drop in the daily trading volume, to $35.81 billion.

Ethereum Price Could Soar to $16,700 If It Breaks $4K

Ethereum price still ranges above $3,800, but hopes for a major rally remain. The main reason is technical analysis: ETH keeps meeting strong resistance at $4,000, but if the price manages to break and hold above this level, analysts say it could quickly climb toward $16,700. 

This target comes from an ascending triangle pattern on the monthly price chart, one of the most bullish technical setups. Traders measure the widest part of the triangle to estimate how far the next move could travel after a breakout.

ETH/USD monthly chart. Source: TradingView

Several popular trading accounts on X (formerly Twitter) have charted this pattern. For example, analysts like @IvanOnTech argue that, based on the triangle, Ethereum is coiling up for its biggest move of the cycle.

Beyond charts, fundamentals support the bullish thesis. The monthly MACD has turned bullish, which in the past led to big Ethereum rallies, 2,000% in 2020–2021 and 130% in late 2023. Analyst Merlijn The Trader says that if ETH breaks $4,200, it could surge again like it did in 2021.

Ethereum Supply Tightens as ETFs Attract $5.3B in Inflows

Institutional buying is having a major effect. Spot Ethereum ETFs in the U.S. have brought in net inflows for 18 straight days, adding over $5.3 billion since July 2. Since these ETFs were approved in 2024, more than $9.6 billion has flowed into them.

Total Ethereum Spot ETF Net Inflow Source: Coinglass

Companies like SharpLink Gaming have bought large amounts of ETH, while yearly supply growth is low, only about 800,000 ETH, against the high demand of up to $20 billion. This creates a supply squeeze, driving prices higher. 

Experts on social media say this steady institutional buying is new for Ethereum and adds even more reason to expect much higher prices this cycle.

Ethereum Price Steadies Around $3,860 as Bullish Momentum Builds

ETH has bounced strongly from lows near $2,200 to about $3,860, a 73% gain in a short time, thanks to renewed bullish sentiment. ETH now trades above its key 50- and 200-day moving averages, showing buyers are leading the market. 

The RSI is just under 60, signalling healthy buying but not overbought. MACD is a bit above zero, so buyers control the trend for now, though momentum may pause. While the ADX at 32.92 shows a strong uptrend.

ETHUSD Analysis Source: Tradingview

If ETH stays above $3,800, it could retest $4,000 and move much higher if bulls return. If it drops, buyers may step in near $2,127. The trend is currently up, and long-term investors remain positive.