Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Bullish Cycle Run Could Stretch to 2026

Arthur Hayes, The founder of BitMEX, has remained bullish over Bitcoin’s prospects, predicting that its ongoing bull cycle could continue beyond 2026. 

Hayes argues that we are only midway through the cycle, and that macroeconomic factors, precisely interest rate cuts as well as a liquidity increase, could take Bitcoin higher. According to him, soon, in fact, the Federal Reserve will kick off a rate-cutting spree that could stretch as far as mid-2026.

According to him, President Trump will presumably appeal to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to lower interest rates dramatically, a factor that will inject fresh liquidity into the economy as well as encourage massive Bitcoin-bound fund migration.

Liquidity Surge and the $200K Target

Hayes emphasized that lower interest rates typically lead to increased money supply, and with Bitcoin’s fixed supply, this influx of liquidity could be a major catalyst for price appreciation.  Referencing the next month’s FOMC, where economists forecast a 25 basis point rate cut, then cuts later in the year.

Whether or not a pace is determined by the Fed, Trump will seek other ways of imposing stimulus upon the economy, such as printing out new cash, a move that, in hindsight, would preferentially benefit Bitcoin due to its scarcity.

He eradicated the old-fashioned four-year cycle thesis, arguing in its place that direction would come from macroeconomic fundamentals. Hayes went as far as to predict Bitcoin could reach as high as $200,000, referencing the initial phase of money printing by governments as a sign that there is yet upside ahead.

Bitcoin’s Performance vs. S&P 500 and Gold

Despite Bitcoin’s sideways movement in the last few days after reaching a record high of $124,000, Hayes is not bothered by its trailing behind the S&P 500 and gold, which have reached new records as global M2 liquidity rises. He argues that Bitcoin’s relative performance in the longer term still dwarfs that of other securities, and temporary poor performance is not a concern.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt has recently suggested that this month could mark a peak in the bull market, based on precedents from the past, a prediction that Hayes does not share. According to him, the macro environment remains favorable for Bitcoin, and a genuine top is looming. Regarding its own point of exit, Hayes said he would make it dependent on broad-based economic indicators rather than predetermined timelines.

Arthur Hayes’ outlook challenges conventional wisdom around Bitcoin’s market cycles. By tying Bitcoin’s future to macroeconomic policy, especially interest rates and fiscal stimulus, he paints a picture of a bull run that could defy historical patterns and extend into 2026.

With liquidity rising and governments poised to print more money, Hayes sees a clear path for Bitcoin to surge toward $200,000. Whether this prediction holds is unclear, but one thing is certain: the crypto market is moving into a phase where traditional rules no longer apply.