Arthur Hayes Says Crypto Could Surge Once U.S. Treasury Balance Hits $850B

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says crypto could see a strong rally once the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) balance reaches about $850 billion.

According to Hayes, this cash buildup will pump liquidity back into markets, creating good conditions for assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Hayes also explains that the TGA level signals when liquidity cycles change, giving traders an idea of when the next big move might happen. He has often pointed to global liquidity as one of the main forces driving Bitcoin’s price, and he expects the same once this threshold is hit.

Analyst Question Arthur Haye’s Crypto Liquidity Prediction

Some analysts didn’t agree with Haye’s prediction that money will start moving into financial markets once the U.S. Treasury account hits $850 billion. According to Andre Dragosch, Hayes’ idea is pointless as liquidity doesnt have much effect on Bitcoin or crypto.

In addition, many crypto traders expect more money to flow into markets in the coming month as the Federal Reserve continues lowering interest rates, which should push asset prices higher until rates rise again.

U.S. Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rates Amid Expectations of Further Reductions

The United States Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 0.25% for the first time since 2024, following the news that Bitcoin’s price dropped below $115,000 in a typical sell-the-news reaction.

Nic Puckrin, founder of Coin Bureau, cautioned that the market could dip briefly since traders had already priced in the rate cut.

Although the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) remains divided on further cuts in 2025, data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group shows that nearly 92% of traders expect interest rates to fall by up to 0.5% at the October meeting.

Rodriguez-Alarcon explained that if the Fed surprises with a 0.5% cut, investors might worry about the economy and trigger a short-term market drop. However, he added that in the long run, the cuts could push asset prices higher as investors shift money from savings into investments.