Bitcoin May Plunge 70% In Next Bear Market, Benjamin Cowen Says

Bitcoin could fall as much as 70% in the next bear market, according to influential crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen.

“Does it have to happen?” he asked in an interview with Kyle Chasse. ”No, but history would at least caution us to at least believe that it might. I would say maybe a 70% drawdown from whatever the all-time high ends up.”

Bitcoin Trend Warns of Steep Decline

Cowen, an influential analyst with over 1 million followers on X, based his warning on historical Bitcoin cycle patterns.

He highlighted previous Bitcoin bear markets, when the cryptocurrency lost around 94%, 87%, and about 77% from peak prices.

Cowen said that if Bitcoin starts rising dramatically in the fourth quarter, he intends to take profits and move them into stablecoins, waiting until mid-2026 to re-enter the market.

Some Bitcoin bulls, like BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, have crypto price targets as high as $250,000 by the end of 2025.

If Bitcoin hits that mark, a 70% crash would bring the price back to around $75,000.

Outlook for Bitcoin and Ethereum

Despite the potential for a tough bear market, Cowen said investors should expect another rally first.

But he warned that the price peak could come suddenly, with no clear signal beforehand. “No one’s going to be like this is the top,” he noted.

There are varied on opinions on when Bitcoin’s next bear market might start and how deep it will be.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said he expects 2026 to be a strong year for Bitcoin.

Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital, placed more than a 50% chance that Bitcoin could reach the $140,000 to $150,000 range before the next bear market.

Michael Saylor, executive chairman of Strategy, was confident in June that a long Bitcoin winter would not return.

Cowen also shared insights on Ethereum, predicting it will struggle against Bitcoin for a few more weeks before outperforming toward the cycle’s end.

The Ethereum-to-Bitcoin ratio has risen about 8.5% in the past 30 days.