Bitcoin Near End Of 4-Year Cycle, May See “Off Year” In 2026, Fidelity Says
Crypto market leader Bitcoin (BTC) may have ended its historical 4-year cycle and is now preparing for a year-long bear market warns Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro Jurrien Timmer.
“While I remain a secular bull on Bitcoin, my concern is that Bitcoin may well have ended another 4-year cycle halving phase, both in price and time,” Timmer wrote in a Dec. 18 X post.
Bitcoin Could Drop To As Low As $65K
Timmer’s post follows BTC’s all-time high (ATH) above $126K that was set in October. According to the analyst, visually lining up all the bull markets from the past show that this peak came in “after 145 months of rallying,” which he says “fits pretty well with what one might expect.”
Bitcoin has since retraced over 30% since reaching its ATH to trade at $88,243.89 as of 7:35 a.m. EST.
BTC price (Source: CoinMarketCap)
Timmer noted that Bitcoin downturns or bear markets, which are often referred to as “crypto winters,” last for approximately one year. Using this observation as a basis for his analysis, he predicted that 2026 could be an “off year” for the largest crypto by market cap.
Timmer concluded his post by saying that the key support region to watch will be between $65K to $75K.
BTC Demand Exhaustion Signals Transition To Bear Market, Says CryptoQuant
On-chain intelligence firm CryptoQuant has echoed Timmer’s sentiment, and warns that BTC’s cycle has flipped from bullish to bearish.
In its latest Crypto Weekly Report, CryptoQuant said that the structural pillars that supported higher prices for Bitcoin since 2023 are now weakening.
The firm said that the latest spot demand wave “looks like it’s rolling over.” It noted that the shift started around early October, which was the same time the market suffered a flash crash that led to a record $19 billion in liquidations.
According to CryptoQuant, the current cycle featured three main drivers: the launch of US spot Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds), optimism surrounding the US presidential election outcome, and the surge of interest from Bitcoin Treasury companies.
In its report, the firm said that with those catalysts now largely priced in, the incremental demand that had nudged the crypto king’s price gradually higher has diminished.
CryptoQuant went on to say that when demand growth rolls over the way it has since October, that it has historically represented the end of the market’s bullish phase.
Institutional And Large-Holder Demand Has Turned
Looking at activity around spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US shows that institutional behavior supports CryptoQuant’s claim that the market has turned bearish. In the fourth quarter, the trend for these products has shifted from accumulation to distribution.
US spot BTC ETF flows (Source: Farside Investors)
Since the start of the month, the funds have seen seven days of net daily inflows. Just this week, investors pulled capital from the investment products for three out of the five days. The outflows continued yesterday, with $161.3 million being withdrawn from the spot BTC ETFs, data from Farside Investors shows.
This year’s fourth-quarter performance is a stark contrast to activity during the same period in 2024, when the funds were strong net buyers of BTC and a central driver for the crypto and the broader market’s strength.
Alongside the trend shift for BTC ETFs, on-chain data shows that addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, which are often associated with ETFs, funds, and corporate treasuries, are growing below the historical trend.
CryptoQuant drew similarities between that trend and the one seen in late 2021, when there was also a demand deterioration that preceded the 2022 bear market.
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