Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Tumbles 6% as Analyst Warns of Further Downside

Bitcoin slid sharply on Friday, reaching its lowest level in over two months, as a wave of forced liquidations hit leveraged traders as investors weighed the potential impact of a US Federal Reserve leadership change.

The BTC price has also slipped below its key support level at around $84,000, which has held since mid-November 2025. The asset extended its sell-off, plunging to a two-month low of around $81,300.

The Bitcoin price is down 6% over the last 24 hours, trading at $82,405 as of 05:32 a.m. EST, after the $84,000 demand zone failed to hold back sellers, with crypto liquidations passing above $1.79 billion.

Bitcoin erased more than $752 million in long positions on its tumble to an intraday low of approximately $81,314, according to CoinGlass data.

Investors Eye Trump Fed Chair Appointment

Friday’s downturn coincided with growing market anxiety over US monetary policy leadership. President Donald Trump said he will announce his choice to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday morning.

Discussions are intensifying regarding speculation that former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh will be nominated for the top central bank post.

Warsh is viewed as an advocate of a tighter stance on the Fed’s balance sheet and monetary policy direction, potentially reducing liquidity that has supported risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Meanwhile, a US agriculture committee advanced a bill that would grant the CFTC new authority to regulate digital commodities and strengthen consumer protections in the emerging market. The legislation, called the Digital Commodity Intermediaries Act, builds on the Clarity Act.

Analyst Warns of Further Downside

As the Bitcoin price declines, Benjamin Cowen, founder of the analytics platform Into The Cryptoverse, noted that Bitcoin’s weakness is consistent with historical market cycles and tightening global liquidity conditions.

According to Cowen, BTC has already changed its outlook to a bearish one after its peak in October 2025.

“I do think Bitcoin is, in fact, in a bear market,” Cowen said.

Cowen argues that the price of BTC has previously peaked in the fourth quarter following elections, with the previous year following a similar pattern.

“The reason Bitcoin is dropping, arguably, is just because this is when it always drops,” Cowen said. “It always tops out in the fourth quarter of the post-election year.”

Can the price still recover, or will the bearish trend continue?

Bitcoin Breaks Key Support as Bears Press Price Toward Range Lows

BTC is currently trading well below the $89,600–$90,000 resistance zone, which aligns with the dropping 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and continues to cap upside attempts.

After multiple failed rebound attempts, Bitcoin has broken below the $84,000–$85,000 demand zone, signaling that buyers are losing control. The recent move lower does not appear corrective, but rather a continuation of the prevailing bearish trend.

Meanwhile, the 200-day SMA near $104,300 remains well above current price action, indicating that the current technical damage is overstretched.

Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently around 30, hovering just above oversold territory. This reflects strong downside momentum, with no bullish divergence present to suggest seller exhaustion at this stage.

BTC appears to be breaking down from a prolonged consolidation following the November–December selloff. Lower highs remain firmly intact, and price has now slipped below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement ($84,000), opening the door for a move toward the 1.0 retracement near $80,600.

BTC/USD Chart Analysis: TradingView

The 1-day BTC/USD chart suggests that the price of Bitcoin is under intense selling pressure. Failure to quickly reclaim the $84,000 level could push BTC toward the $80,600 support zone, which represents the full Fibonacci retracement and a critical structural low.

However, any short-term relief bounce is likely to face resistance near $84,000–$85,000, followed by stronger selling pressure near $89,600 (50-day SMA). A strong daily close back above the 50-day SMA would be required to stabilize the BTC price