Judy Shelton’s Fed Chair Odds Rise as Trump Decision Nears

Crypto traders are placing more bets on Judy Shelton to become the next U.S. Federal Reserve chair. Her odds are rising as the race to replace Jerome Powell becomes more competitive.

Data from Kalshi shows Shelton’s chances have increased to 5%. On Polymarket, her odds are slightly lower at 3%. This shows that some traders believe she has a better chance than before.

At the same time, Kevin Hassett’s odds are falling. He is still the favorite, but his chances have dropped to 38%, down from about 85% in early December. This means traders are less confident in him than before.

Other candidates include Kevin Warsh, with 36% odds, and Fed Governor Chris Waller, with 13% odds. Rick Rieder from BlackRock also has a 5% chance, even though reports say Trump’s shortlist only includes Hassett, Warsh, Waller, and Rieder.

Markets Brace for Trump’s Fed Chair Announcement

Trump has already interviewed Warsh and Waller. Reports say he planned to interview Rieder late last year, but there has been no update from the White House. Trump has also stayed quiet recently about who he will choose.

However, Trump has been openly critical of Powell. He recently said he would like to fire him and even suggested a lawsuit over what he called “gross incompetence.”

Most traders believe Trump will announce his pick soon. Kalshi shows an 82% chance that the announcement comes before February 1. Polymarket shows a 79% chance it comes by January 31.

Markets are also watching whether Powell will stay on the Fed board after his term ends in May. If he resigns, Trump could gain more influence at the Fed and push for lower interest rates.