Kevin Warsh Odds Jump on Polymarket as Trump Shortlists Him for Fed Chair

Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor, is becoming a stronger contender to be the next Fed Chair, as crypto traders are increasingly betting on him after President Trump named him as one of the top two contenders to replace Jerome Powell.

Data from Polymarket shows that his chances have jumped from about 13% yesterday to 36% today, making him the second favourite after Kevin Hassett.

Right now, there’s a 56% chance that Trump will pick Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair. His odds were as high as 70% recently, but they have dropped as traders now see Kevin Warsh as a strong contender.

Warsh’s rising chances come after The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump is leaning toward either Kevin Warsh or Kevin Hassett to replace Jerome Powell. Trump noted that Warsh is at the top of his list, but also included Hassett, indicating that he plans to select one of the two.

Trump interviewed all five candidates for Fed chair this week, and  Warsh reportedly impressed him the most. The other candidates are Kevin Hasset, Fed Governors Chris Waller and Michelle Bowman, and BlackRock executive Rick Rieder.

Trump’s Fed Pick Could Lead to More Rate Cuts

With Trump likely to pick a Fed chair who supports rate cuts, the Fed might reduce interest rates more than currently expected. Fed President Austan Goolsbee said yesterday he expects the committee to make more cuts than the current forecast of one 0.25% cut in 2026.

According to Trump, the U.S. should have very low interest rates, possibly as low as 1%. He also noted the next Fed chair must cut rates immediately, calling it a key test for choosing Powell’s replacement.

As people await Trump’s choice to replace Powell, crypto traders are betting on how many interest rate cuts the Fed will make next year. Most expect three cuts, with about a 21.5% chance of this happening.