Bitcoin eyes $155K after strong rebound – But can it break $120K?

Bitcoin ($BTC) is once again approaching a major milestone. After climbing back toward the $120,000 level, the world’s largest cryptocurrency is showing signs that it may continue rising.

Some analysts now believe it could even reach as high as $155,000 in the coming months.

This bullish prediction is based on analysis from TradingShot, published on TradingView on 28 July. According to their view, the latest rally began in April 2025, when Bitcoin bounced off its 50-week Moving Average (MA). 

This rebound marked a turning point, coming within a larger upward channel that started all the way back in November 2022.

Interestingly, this is the second time Bitcoin has found support at the 0.236 Fibonacci level during this three-year trend. Historically, this level has acted as a springboard for major price gains. 

In previous similar cases, Bitcoin surged by more than 100%. One rally in late 2022 and early 2023 led to a 106.37% gain. A stronger move between late 2023 and early 2024 delivered a 197.23% increase.

Now, TradingShot says the current rally could follow that second pattern, possibly sending Bitcoin up to $155,500. That would be nearly 30% higher than where the price sits today.

At the same time, others are taking a more cautious approach. Crypto analyst, Michaël van de Poppe, noted in a July 28 post on X that Bitcoin is struggling to break past resistance around $119,400. “There’s been a short-term rejection”, he said, after BTC briefly climbed above that level.

One concern is the CME futures gap near $118,500. These gaps, which occur when trading pauses and resumes at different prices, often get filled before a price continues in a certain direction. 

There’s also a cluster of liquidity just below current prices, which increases the chance that Bitcoin could dip before heading higher.

Van de Poppe believes a drop to the $116,500–$117,500 range is likely in the short term. He sees this as a healthy correction that could offer a good buying opportunity.

Right now, Bitcoin is trading around $118,961, a 0.7% gain over the last 24 hours. Over the past week, it’s up by 0.68%. It remains above its key support levels, including the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $110,835 and the 200-day SMA of $90,530. These indicators suggest the uptrend is still in place.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently reads 64.11. That shows buyers are still active, but the market hasn’t entered the overbought zone yet. As a result, there may still be room for further gains before any major pullback.

However, analysts remain split on the next move. Some say Bitcoin must break above $119,500 to confirm a new leg higher. Others think the market could still test lower support near $114,500 before making its next big move.

One company that isn’t waiting to find out is Metaplanet, a Japanese investment firm. The company recently bought another 780 BTC for $92 million, bringing its total holdings to 17,132 BTC. 

Its aggressive strategy has paid off, its stock price is up 246% this year and 517% over the past 12 months, making it Japan’s best-performing stock.

Rebound from lows boosts confidence

Bitcoin’s rise above $119,000 on Sunday helped it recover from two-week lows near $114,500. The bounce renewed interest in the market and sparked debate among traders. Many are now watching to see if BTC can finally break through the $120,000 barrier.

Charts show that Bitcoin is now close to reclaiming a key level, with bulls trying to keep the price above the 10-day SMA. The rally followed one of the largest Bitcoin sales on record, which had put selling pressure on the market. 

But that pressure eased after the US and China agreed to delay the start of new trade tariffs. The news improved investor sentiment across global markets.

Crypto investor, Ted Pillows, said, “Bitcoin needs to decisively clear $119.5K for a breakout”. If not, he warned, the price could stay stuck in a sideways pattern for a while. Still, he believes that Bitcoin could push through next month.

Analyst Rekt Capital also noticed that Bitcoin closed above the lower end of a recent trading range. That may be a sign that BTC is reentering a previously lost zone. 

However, he cautioned that if prices fall back, they must hold above that same lower level to confirm the bullish move.

Other voices remain cautious. Trader, CrypNuevo, pointed to a mid-term target between $113,600 and $114,500. This zone has acted as support before and contains large pools of buying interest, which could attract the price back.

According to data from CoinGlass, the “max pain” level for short positions is currently around $119,650. If Bitcoin rises beyond this point, it could trigger short liquidations worth over $1.1 billion. 

Data from Coinank also shows strong resistance between $119,000 and $120,000, with dense clusters of liquidation orders waiting at those levels.

Another factor adding uncertainty is dealer gamma positioning. Analyst, TheKingfisher, noted that dealers are heavily short gamma, a setup that often causes sharp price moves. 

When dealers are short gamma, they tend to buy low and sell high to hedge their positions, which can lead to more market volatility.

Metaplanet, however, appears unfazed by short-term swings. The firm revealed that it paid an average of $118,145 per Bitcoin in its latest purchase. That’s just slightly below the current market price. Its total BTC investment now stands at roughly $1.7 billion, with an average cost of $99,640 per coin.

With 17,132 BTC, Metaplanet now holds the seventh-largest corporate Bitcoin treasury in the world. It ranks just behind Trump Media & Technology Group (18,430 BTC) and ahead of Galaxy Digital (12,830 BTC). At the top of the list is Strategy, which owns more than 607,770 BTC worth over $72 billion.

Its CEO, Simon Gerovich, told Forbes Japan that Metaplanet’s approach is “Japan-native”. The company has structured its strategy to match Japanese tax and investment rules, including the ability for investors to gain Bitcoin exposure through tax-free accounts.

Price discovery mode begins as July ends

Bitcoin’s journey in 2025 has been full of ups and downs. The first quarter of the year was slow. Ongoing worries about US tariffs and geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine kept prices under pressure.

Things changed in Q2. By April, global conditions began to improve. Bitcoin took off, reaching $112,000 in May. But the rally paused after tensions in the Middle East returned.

On 17 June, US President, Donald Trump warned Iran’s leadership after weeks of increasing tension. Iran responded defiantly. Later that month, the US launched strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. Bitcoin dropped to $98,000 as a result.

Still, the market bounced back. In July, Bitcoin broke out of its previous range. A combination of whale accumulation, high trading volume, and a bullish technical breakout pushed prices higher.

On 14 July, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $123,231. But the excitement faded as traders locked in profits. This led to sideways movement, with price momentum cooling off. The RSI fell from 75 to 61. 

If it drops further below the neutral line, Bitcoin may test its 50-day EMA band. That zone could offer new buying interest.

Currently, BTC is testing the upper edge of a range. If it can break out, the next target is $125,000, a key psychological level. Some believe that this could happen before the end of July.

In the short term, Bitcoin has flipped the $116,000 level and is now retesting the 20-day EMA at around $115,000. If support fails, a dip to $110,000 is possible. The final safety net lies at around $101,000.

Past events show how global issues affect Bitcoin. Data from Santiment shows that during the Israel-Palestine conflict in 2024, social media activity surged as prices fell, followed by a recovery. The same thing happened in 2025 with the Russia-Ukraine crisis.

Now, with the Israel-Iran conflict leading to US military action, Bitcoin has again dipped, this time to $98,000. But analysts believe another rally could follow. The long-term outlook remains positive.

ETF inflows are rising. Institutional interest is growing. Regulatory clarity is improving. Many investors now see Bitcoin as “a hedge against inflation”. Companies like Strategy, Metaplanet, and Trump Media are buying Bitcoin in large quantities.

Some analysts say Bitcoin could reach $175,000 if things go well. On the downside, a deeper correction could bring prices as low as $70,000.

With Bitcoin in price discovery mode and market sentiment optimistic, the coming weeks may decide whether it’s ready to reach new highs – or take a breather before the next run.