Bitcoin Could Fall Much Lower as $150B Treasury Operation Nears

Michael Kramer, founder and CEO of Mott Capital Management, is warning that a series of U.S. Treasury settlement operations between May 28 and June 5 will drain roughly $150 billion in liquidity from the financial system – and that Bitcoin, trading near $73,069 at press time and already down 11% from highs above $82,500, could fall significantly further as a result. The breakdown of key support near $75,000 is not incidental to Kramer’s thesis; it is the thesis. “In my experience, Bitcoin tends to be a better liquidity indicator than most other instruments,” Kramer wrote in his latest market analysis note. “If the Treasury settlements are a drain on liquidity, then Bitcoin could be heading much lower.”

The mechanism is straightforward. When the Treasury sells new securities, the proceeds flow directly into the Treasury General Account at the Federal Reserve, pulling cash out of the banking system and reducing the pool of liquidity available for risk assets. That process is not gradual – it hits in discrete settlement waves, and the coming window is unusually concentrated.

$150 Billion in Five Days: How the Settlement Window Hits Risk Assets

Kramer’s breakdown of the settlement schedule shows how front-loaded the drain is: $15 billion in T-bills settling May 28, $47 billion in coupon settlements May 29, $68 billion on June 2, $16 billion in T-bill settlements June 3, and an additional $5 billion to $15 billion in T-bill settlements June 4. The $68 billion Monday slug is the single largest node and arrives after a weekend that gives no escape valve for repositioning.

The historical template for this type of TGA rebuild is not abstract. During late 2025, the Treasury General Account climbed approximately $200 billion to roughly $965 billion by late October – and Bitcoin fell about 36% from its October all-time high of $126,210 over that same period, logging four consecutive monthly declines, its longest losing streak since 2018. Macro traders are now citing that episode as the structural analog for what a renewed funding wave can do to BTC when the demand backdrop is already soft. Rising Treasury yields compounding that dynamic have already demonstrated this transmission channel under live market conditions.

The channel from Treasury market to Bitcoin is not sentiment-driven – it is mechanical. Cash absorbed by government securities does not rotate into risk assets; it exits the system. When that drain coincides with already-weakening spot demand, the resulting price action tends to be asymmetric to the downside.

Demand Already Fragile Before the Macro Catalyst Arrives

Kramer’s warning is not landing on a resilient market structure. Bitcoin’s spot demand has already collapsed to its weakest level since December, with apparent demand readings deep in negative territory – a structural mismatch where supply reaching the market is outpacing what buyers are absorbing on-chain. That backdrop matters because it means the $150 billion drain does not need to trigger panic selling to push prices lower; it only needs to suppress the marginal bid that has been keeping the asset afloat near current levels.

Corporate Bitcoin treasury cohorts – now numbering over 145 public and private firms holding an estimated 1.4 million BTC – add a second layer of structural fragility. Monthly purchases from this cohort have fallen sharply, from roughly 64,000 BTC in July 2025 to approximately 12,600 BTC in August, with only 15,500 BTC acquired in early September – a 76% collapse in buying pace versus early-summer levels. The corporate bid that previously absorbed supply during dips is materially thinner. Institutional flow data shows capital rotating away from Bitcoin into higher-beta structures, compounding the demand gap at the spot level.

Ether is flashing the same signal. The asset has fallen below $2,000 for the first time since March, logging nearly 8% in losses over the past week – yet futures open interest has hit a record high of 16 million ETH, a combination that points to aggressive leveraged short positioning rather than spot capitulation. Record open interest into falling prices is a structurally bearish configuration.

$75,000 Was the Line – The Next Level That Matters Is $66,400

Bitcoin has already lost the $75,000 support level that Kramer identified as the key threshold for tightening liquidity conditions. From a market-structure perspective, that break shifts the tactical question from defense to the next identifiable cluster. Derivatives data highlights approximately $1.2 billion in leveraged long positions concentrated near $66,400 – a level where a modest continuation lower could trigger cascading liquidations and mechanically accelerate the move beyond what macro selling alone would produce.

The bull case requires a clear recovery above $75,000 on a daily close, ideally accompanied by a reversal in apparent demand readings and evidence that the Treasury settlement window is not draining system liquidity as aggressively as Kramer projects. If coupon settlements on May 29 and the $68 billion Monday node pass without a measurable tightening in funding rates or a repricing of risk, the immediate bearish thesis loses its primary catalyst.

The governing condition for the next move is the May 29 coupon settlement and the June 2 $68 billion node – two data points that will either confirm Kramer’s liquidity drain thesis or begin to neutralize it. Until one of those prints lands without triggering visible risk-off pressure across rate-sensitive assets, the path of least resistance for Bitcoin remains lower, with $66,400 as the next structural level the market will be forced to price.

Follow CoinNews on X and Telegram for the Latest Crypto Market Updates and Professional Market Analysis.