Bitcoin Gains After Jobs Shock, but $66,000 Resistance Holds

Bitcoin traded at $64,938, up 1.06% on the session, after a contraction in U.S. employment data lowered Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations and offered support to risk assets. However, the asset remained below its key moving averages in a persistent technical death cross pattern.

U.S. Payrolls Contraction Shifts Rate Expectations

The U.S. labor market delivered a sharp surprise in July as nonfarm payrolls contracted by 23,000 jobs, missing economists’ expectations for a gain of 95,000 positions. The contraction was the first net loss in payrolls since the pandemic-era recovery, while prior monthly gains were revised lower.

Markets lowered their expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike after the report. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.5% and Treasury yields declined, while CME FedWatch data showed the probability of a September rate hike falling to 40% from 55% a day earlier.

Softening labor conditions can reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding digital assets, but Bitcoin’s $683 session gain did not move the price above its key technical levels. The rally remained constrained despite the change in rate expectations.

Death Cross Mechanics Hold $66,000 Resistance

From a chart perspective, Bitcoin remained bound by a medium-term bearish death cross, with the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) below the 200-day EMA. The daily chart showed a tight consolidation beneath the 50-day EMA near $66,000 following the decline from May highs near $80,000.

Momentum indicators pointed to neutral conditions rather than an imminent breakout or washout, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 54.6. Recent price action remained a sideways consolidation within the broader downtrend.

The moving averages may continue to act as resistance until Bitcoin reclaims them. A sustained move above those levels would be needed to challenge the bearish technical structure.

Downside Targets Focus on $60,000 and $58,000 Support

If buyers fail to push the price above the overhead moving averages, a daily close below critical support at $60,000 would indicate that bears retain control of the market structure. A break beneath that level could reopen the downtrend toward the July low of $58,000.

Sentiment on prediction platform Myriad remained cautious despite the softer macroeconomic backdrop. Traders on the platform priced a 65% probability that Bitcoin would retest $55,000 before any recovery toward $84,000.

Incoming Federal Reserve signals and economic data could alter rate expectations, while Bitcoin’s response around its moving averages and major support levels remains central to the near-term technical outlook.

Key Levels Required for Bullish Continuation

To challenge the current bearish technical structure, Bitcoin would need to close above the 50-day EMA and technical resistance at $66,000. Such a move would provide a bullish signal and could open a path toward the 200-day EMA and primary cloud resistance around $72,000.

Reclaiming $72,000 would move Bitcoin above primary cloud resistance. Until those upper technical boundaries are reclaimed, rallies may continue to lack conviction.