Bitcoin Price Stalls As JPMorgan Launches Structured Note Linked To BlackRock’s IBIT, Four-Year Halving Cycle

The Bitcoin price edged down a fraction of a per cent in the past 24 hours to trade at $86,731 as of 4:55 a.m. EST, with trading volume dropping 13% to $63 billion.

This comes as JPMorgan Chase introduced a structured note linked to BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF (IBIT), which bets on BTC following its historical four-year halving cycle. Under that cycle, the price of BTC tends to slump in the mid-cycle phase (2026) before rallying strongly in the next halving period in 2028.

The product offers investors a minimum return of about 16% if IBIT meets certain conditions by the end of 2026, and potentially even more by 2028.

The product also offers downside protection, allowing investors to recover their initial investment in 2028 as long as the IBIT ETF doesn’t decline more than 30% that year. 

As a result, this structured note provides a way to ride Bitcoin’s volatility: downside protection, with potential for outsized gains if BTC resumes its long-term uptrend aligned with halving-cycle history.

Texas Buys $5 Million BlackRock Bitcoin ETF

Meanwhile, the Texas state government has purchased $5 million worth of BlackRock’s IBIT.

The state legislature passed the Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and Investment Act earlier this year. The bill appropriated $10 million in total funding for the reserve.

Texas has now deployed the first $5 million through the IBIT ETF purchase, and it has set aside another $5 million to buy more Bitcoin directly.

Bitcoin Price Set For A Recovery Above Key Resistances

The BTC price continues to sustain its bearish trend after failing to maintain the strong recovery it formed earlier in the year.

Following a sharp rebound from the $85,000 support region, the Bitcoin price briefly regained bullish momentum, lifting the price toward the $120,000 resistance area. This surge set the stage for a prolonged consolidation phase that stretched from July into late September, during which bulls and bears battled for control.

However, momentum then shifted in favor of buyers when the price of BTC broke above this consolidation range, pushing the price toward its local high and all-time high (ATH) near $126,000.

The rejection at this ATH led to a sustained drop within a falling channel pattern, which still places BTC in a bearish stance.

Bitcoin now trades well below both the 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which supports the overall bearish move.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily timeframe sits near 30, hovering just above oversold territory. This level is just above the oversold level, which indicates that sellers may also be losing steam.

BTC Bulls Aim For Prices Above $100,000

Based on the BTC/USD chart analysis on the daily timeframe, the BTC price structure remains bearish but shows the early signs of a potential recovery.

If the downtrend persists, the next immediate support sits around $85,000, aligned with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level. Failure to defend this zone could open the door to a deeper decline toward $80,500, which acts as a cushion against downward pressure.

Conversely, if buyers continue to stabilize the Bitcoin price above the lower boundary of the falling channel, Bitcoin may attempt a move toward the $87,800 (0.382 Fib) resistance.

If BTC reclaims this level, it could set the stage for an even sustained recovery toward the $90,000–$92,000 region, which aligns with the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci levels.

Breaking above these key zones would signal a shift in momentum, potentially enabling BTC to challenge the $100,000–$105,000 area.