Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Isn’t Over Yet, Says Gemini’s Saad Ahmed

Bitcoin’s four-year cycle might not repeat exactly, but it’s still ongoing, says Saad Ahmed, Head of APAC at Gemini.

According to Ahmed, the cycle continues because it’s driven by human emotions, people get too excited, prices rise too fast, and the market corrects itself.

Bitcoin Cycle Still Driven by Emotion

Ahmed explained that the cycle happens because people get too excited and overextend themselves, leading to a crash before the market corrects back to equilibrium.

He also added that although increasing institutional involvement in crypto could help reduce volatility, the market will still move in cycles because people’s emotions drive it.

Ahmed believes that even with market changes, understanding Bitcoin’s emotional cycles will help investors recognise when traders are too confident or fearful, signals that can guide their buy and sell decisions.

Glassnode’s recent analysis suggests that Bitcoin price action may still be tracking its historic halving pattern, adding weight to the ongoing debate in the crypto industry about the relevance of the four-year cycle.

Analysts Differ on Bitcoin’s Peak Predictions

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital said  Bitcoin could reach its peak this month if it follows the same pattern as the 2020 cycle, which is approximately 550 days after the April 2024 halving. He added that there may be only a short time left for Bitcoin’s price to rise.

According to data from Coinglass, October marks the beginning of the fourth quarter, which has been Bitcoin’s strongest period since 2013, with an average gain of about 79%.

Despite the aligning evidence, not all analysts agree with this prediction. Bitwise’s chief investment officer, Matt Hougan, said he doesn’t think Bitcoin will follow its usual cycle. He predicted that 2026 will be a strong year and believes the next few years will be good for Bitcoin.

In support of this trend, Bitcoin rose 11.5% over the past week, reaching $123,850, just below its all-time high of $124,100 set in August, according to CoinMarketCap.