Bitcoin’s all-time high: Key levels and trends to watch now

Bitcoin ($BTC) has smashed past the $121,000 mark, setting a new all-time high and taking the spotlight in global financial markets.

On Monday, Bitcoin crossed this key threshold, boosted by large inflows from institutional investors, especially into spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States. 

BlackRock’s IBIT fund has been a standout, reaching over $84 billion in assets under management in just 200 trading days – a feat that took gold’s leading ETF, GLD, more than 15 years to achieve.

Since the start of July, Bitcoin ETFs in the US have seen inflows totalling $16.2 billion. This massive wave of investment has raised hopes that more professional asset managers are viewing Bitcoin as “digital gold” and adding it to their portfolios as a hedge.

Bitcoin’s rise this year has been impressive. With a 30% gain since January, it has overtaken gold, which is up 27%, as the best-performing major asset of 2025. This is the first time both assets are sitting at the top of the global performance table together.

Investors are flocking to Bitcoin and gold because of concerns about the growing US deficit, a weakening dollar, and rising global tensions. The top coin’s price even touched $123,000 before settling back to around $121,000, up more than 3% on the day.

But what is happening beneath the surface? Network data shows that the market is not in a frenzy. Long-term holders are still sitting on profits, but the net unrealised profit/loss (NUPL) indicator is at 0.69, below the 0.75 level often seen before big corrections.

Daily transactions are around 364,000 – well below the highs of past bull runs. Wallets that only buy and never sell have grown by 71% in the past month, now holding a record 250,000 Bitcoin.

Analysts say the rally is not over. Rachel Lucas from BTC Markets predicts Bitcoin will soon hit between $125,000 and $128,000. 

The chief operating officer at BTSE, Jeff May, agrees that $125,000 could come within one to two months. Others are even more bullish. 

Eugene Cheung from OSL sees Bitcoin reaching $130,000 to $150,000 by the end of the year, and Ledn CEO, John Glover, has a $136,000 target before December.

Key levels and market signals to watch

Now that Bitcoin has reached a new all-time high, all eyes are on where it goes next. Crypto analyst, Ali Martinez, explained on X that Bitcoin’s break above the $113,000 level was key. 

For months, Bitcoin had been stuck in a parallel trading channel. Breaking through that resistance confirmed the bullish trend that has been building since April.

The $123,000 level was the first target after the breakout. With that now reached, the next important resistance levels to watch are $131,000, $144,000, and $158,000. 

These are not just random numbers – they line up with long-term technical forecasts and are seen as psychological barriers in the market.

Another crypto analyst, Ted Pillows, believes the next immediate target is $125,000. He sees Bitcoin moving in a “Wyckoff accumulation pattern”, meaning it is going through cycles of consolidation followed by upward moves. According to Pillows, hitting $125,000 could happen in just days.

Technical indicators show a market that remains strong but possibly overheated in the short term. Bitcoin’s 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is at $107,362, while the 200-day SMA sits at $88,660 – both well below the current price, signalling a strong upward trend. 

However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 74.77, which is considered overbought territory. This suggests that some short-term pullback or sideways movement might happen before further gains.

Another prominent market watcher, CrediBull Crypto, points to an Elliott Wave pattern that suggests Bitcoin is in the middle of a powerful rally, with a Wave 3 target of $135,000. After that, there may be a short pause before a final push towards $155,000. 

Importantly, he notes that Bitcoin has a “daily demand zone” between $98,000 and $101,000 that has not been tested since the last rally. This zone acts as a strong support, making a major drop unlikely in the current market mood.

Macro factors and institutional moves shaping the future

Beyond technical charts, big-picture economic forces are also driving Bitcoin’s rise. A new report from 10x Research points out that this bull run is not just about hype or retail traders jumping in. Instead, it is tied to major shifts in US fiscal policy and global economic concerns.

The US recently increased its debt ceiling by $5 trillion, and government deficits are projected to grow by $7 trillion over the next decade. 

This has sent investors looking for alternatives to traditional currencies, and Bitcoin has increasingly been seen as a hedge – much like gold – against inflation and unchecked spending.

Institutional investors are leading the charge. Pension funds, endowments, and asset managers are steadily buying Bitcoin, showing that it is gaining a place in mainstream investment strategies. 

On-chain data backs this up: long-term holders are adding to their positions, and ETF inflows are outpacing those from retail traders.

Options markets have also turned bullish. Since 2 July, after 10x Research’s trend model flipped positive, short positions have been liquidated, helping to push prices higher. 

Traders are now aggressively buying call options, betting on further gains. Historically, July has been a strong month for Bitcoin, and this seasonal trend could add extra fuel to the rally.

There are key dates ahead that investors will be watching. On 22 July, a report from the former US president’s digital asset task force is expected, which could bring new regulatory clarity. 

Then, on 30 July, the US Federal Reserve will hold its next meeting, where any signs of changes in interest rate policy could impact markets.

Bitcoin’s rise has also shaken up the rankings of the world’s biggest assets. Its market capitalisation has surged to $2.39 trillion, briefly overtaking Amazon and placing it as the fifth-largest asset globally, behind only tech giants like Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft.

One of the most notable institutional moves has come from Strategy, a company that just bought 4,225 Bitcoin for $472.5 million, at an average price of $111,827. 

This brings its total holdings to 601,550 Bitcoin, purchased at an average of $71,268. To fund this, the company sold nearly 2 million shares of common stock and preferred shares offering dividends of 8% to 10%.

According to CoinShares, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs pulled in a record $3.7 billion last week alone, pushing total assets under management for crypto investment products to $211 billion. 

Bitcoin took in $2.7 billion of those flows, now representing over half the value held in gold ETFs. As the Head of Research at CoinShares, James Butterfill, put it, “Regionally, the US dominated with $3.7 billion in inflows.”

Ethereum ($ETH) has held above $3,000, but it is still down 4.6% compared to last year, unlike Bitcoin, which has more than doubled over the same period. Ethereum-linked ETFs, however, have seen 12 straight weeks of inflows, showing continued interest from investors.

According to Bitfinex analysts, the ETF inflows have absorbed nearly all the selling pressure in Bitcoin, saying, “Importantly, open interest is climbing alongside price while funding remains balanced, showing this rally is built on spot-driven conviction, not excess leverage”.

Lead analyst at BRN, Valentin Fournier, warned that while momentum is strong now, it could reverse quickly. “History shows momentum can quickly reverse once buying pressure weakens – making risk management essential in the days ahead”, he said. His team is keeping a close eye on inflows and ready to reduce exposure if activity slows.

With Bitcoin’s price above $121,000 and key levels ahead, the market is at an exciting but delicate stage. Investors, traders, and institutions alike will be watching technical signals, macro events, and capital flows closely as Bitcoin’s next chapter unfolds. 

Whether it is the push towards $131,000, a pullback for consolidation, or a run towards $155,000, one thing is clear – Bitcoin’s story is far from over.