CLARITY Act Deal Lifts XRP 3.5%, Yet Death Cross Clouds the Rally

XRP climbed 3.5% intraday to settle at $1.1485 – touching an intraday high of $1.1511 and a market cap near $68 billion – after reports emerged late Monday that President Donald Trump had agreed to the ethics provision that had kept the CLARITY Act stalled in the Senate, pushing Polymarket odds of passage from 32% to 43% and triggering roughly $2.93 million in leveraged short liquidations on the token. The move placed XRP third among top-50 gainers on the session, behind only Ondo and Cardano, after weeks in which the Ripple-linked asset had lagged the broader market recovery while pinned below the $1.13 resistance level that had capped every rally since late June.

The CLARITY Act: Why This Bill Moves XRP Specifically

The legislative development matters for XRP in a way it does not for most other digital assets. The CLARITY Act would formally classify XRP as a digital commodity, removing the regulatory ambiguity that has persisted since the SEC’s 2020 enforcement theory against Ripple and that has historically constrained institutional demand for the token.

The sticking point in Senate negotiations had been a Democratic push for language prohibiting the president and his family from directly benefiting from cryptocurrency ventures – a provision that gained urgency given that the Trump family’s crypto-related businesses have reportedly netted the president more than $1.2 billion in 2025 alone, . Sen. Cynthia Lummis, Sen. Bernie Moreno, and the White House reportedly reached a deal on that language Sunday, though the precise wording has not yet been disclosed and Democratic agreement is not guaranteed.

The broader risk-on backdrop amplified the move: Bitcoin climbed above $66,000, five-day spot ETF inflows surpassed $700 million, and a concurrent bounce in Asian AI and semiconductor stocks added to the macro tone. For context on how the CLARITY Act fits into the wider conditions needed for a sustained crypto recovery, analysis framing the bill as one of two key recovery catalysts outlines why passage carries weight beyond a single-asset trade.

The legislative window is narrow. The Senate must hold a floor vote before heading into August recess, and the ethics provision language still requires final political agreement – meaning the 43% Polymarket odds reflect genuine uncertainty, not a near-done deal. Regulatory momentum and the ongoing Congressional push on revised market-structure legislation have been flagged as near-term catalysts across broader altcoin positioning analysis as well.

XRP Technical Structure: Breakout Energy, But Unconfirmed Trend

The daily candle is constructive. What sits underneath it is less so. The Average Directional Index (ADX) reads 12.3 – well below the 25 threshold required to confirm a trend in either direction. ADX measures trend strength without regard to direction; a reading this low indicates the prior bearish trend is weakening, but it does not confirm that a new bullish one has taken hold.

The directional indicators tilt positive, offering a marginal bias toward bulls – but that signal is structurally thin. The more significant overhang is the death cross still in effect: the 50-day EMA trades below the 200-day EMA, a configuration that tells traders the medium-term trajectory remains down regardless of what a single session candle shows. One day’s breakout does not mechanically reverse that reading; bulls need sustained price action that pushes the EMA50 back through the EMA200 to change the structural picture. For a deeper look at how XRP’s derivatives positioning has evolved heading into this move, recent analysis of XRP futures open interest and institutional dynamics provides useful framing.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 58 is a genuine bright spot: technically in bullish territory, confirming buying pressure is outpacing selling without yet reaching overbought levels above 70. The Squeeze Momentum Indicator fired two bars ago, signaling that volatility is expanding after a period of compression – a pattern that can produce sharp moves in either direction. What happens in the next two or three sessions carries disproportionate weight in determining whether today’s breakout has legs or resolves as a rejection.

Bull Case and Bear Case: The Levels That Matter

The bullish scenario requires a daily close above $1.1343 accompanied by a rising ADX reading. That combination targets the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $1.1563 as the next structural resistance, with the full swing recovery level at $1.1843 as the broader upside objective. Neither of those targets is in play until the death cross is resolved and momentum confirms rather than merely hints.

The bearish case activates on a rejection from current levels, where price has moved quickly into technically stretched territory relative to the underlying indicator readings. A pullback would find initial defense at $1.1189, with $1.1035 as the next significant support below – the zone the market would be forced to price if buying pressure fails to follow through. The narrow Senate timeline adds a binary dimension to the trade: a failed floor vote before August recess would strip the immediate catalyst and likely accelerate any technical retreat.

The path of least resistance is tactically higher while price holds above $1.1343 and the ADX begins to rise – but structurally, the death cross remains the governing condition the market has not yet resolved, and $1.1563 is the first level that would force a genuine reassessment.

Follow CoinNews on X and Telegram for ongoing market updates and technical analysis as the CLARITY Act Senate vote approaches.