XRP Price Prediction As Exchange Supply Hits 7-Year Low

The XRP price edged up a fraction of a percentage in the past 24 hours to $1.87 as of 3:14 a.m. EST, on trading volume that dropped 9% to $1.7 billion.

This comes as on-chain data from Glassnode shows that XRP exchange reserves have collapsed to their lowest point since 2018, a move that suggests a powerful precursor to a major supply shock.

Based on the data provided, between October 8 and the end of December, the amount of XRP on exchange wallets dropped significantly from approximately 3.76 billion Ripple tokens to just 1.6 billion. This represents a drop of over 57% in less than 3 months, a figure not seen in 7 years.

The move shows that holders are accumulating and opting for self-custody, which, in turn, lays the foundation for more substantial, more committed ownership. This, in turn, reinforces the upside potential for XRP.

“XRP supply tightens with about 1.5 billion left on exchanges,” said trader and analyst LeviRietveld in a Monday post on X, adding: “Bullish, grab yours now!”

Can the price of XRP take off on this bullish outlook?

XRP Price Indicators Signal Continued Bearish Pressure Near Channel Support

According to the XRP/USD daily chart analysis, the XRP price is still trading on the lower boundary of a falling wedge pattern. At the time of analysis, XRP is trading near the $1.87 support area, with price action compressing toward the channel’s lower boundary.

As shown by the Fibonacci Retracement levels, the Ripple token previously rallied to a major swing high near $3.67 before bulls lost momentum.

Following that rejection, the price of XRP broke below key Fib levels, including the 0.5 ($2.64) and 0.618 ($2.47) retracement zones, confirming a shift from bullish continuation to corrective price action.

After losing these support levels, XRP continued to trend lower, forming consistent lower highs and lower lows within the falling wedge. The Ripple token price has now revisited the 1.0 Fib extension area near $1.90, which aligns with historical demand and the channel’s lower trendline.

The broader downtrend is further reinforced by the Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). The XRP price is trading below both the 50-day SMA ($2.04) and the 200-day SMA ($2.57).

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently hovering around 41.80, remaining below the neutral 50 level. This suggests bearish momentum remains dominant, though the RSI is not yet oversold, leaving room for either consolidation or continuation.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum. However, the blue MACD line has slightly crossed above the orange signal line, indicating a bullish signal that supports the demand area.

XRP/USD Chart Analysis: TradingView

Ripple Token Price Prediction

The latest daily candle shows XRP consolidating just above the $1.85–$1.90 support zone, which coincides with the lower boundary of the descending channel.

If the XRP price holds this support and attracts buyers, a short-term relief rally could push the Ripple token toward the 50-day SMA near $2.05, which now serves as the immediate resistance area. A sustained breakout above this level could allow XRP to retest the $2.20–$2.30 region, aligned with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement and mid-channel resistance.

On the downside, if bearish pressure resumes and XRP breaks below $1.85, the structure suggests continued downside risk, with the next key support zone potentially forming near the $1.60–$1.65 area, below the current channel floor.