JPMorgan has released a research report predicting a bullish rebound for Bitcoin ($BTC) in August.
Despite the intense correction in the market, the banking giant sees positive signs for the cryptocurrency.
A significant point in JPMorgan’s report is the expected subsidence of the wave of crypto liquidations that has plagued the market.
The bank has adjusted its year-to-date crypto net flow estimate from $12 billion down to $8 billion, reflecting more recent trends and data. This revision offers a more accurate depiction of current market conditions.
JPMorgan admitted that its previous estimate of $12 billion was overly optimistic, noting that Bitcoin’s price was significantly higher than its production cost and even the price of gold.
With Bitcoin currently valued at $57,975—a notable decrease from its March all-time high of $73,737—the $8 billion estimate seems more grounded.
The anticipation of an altcoin season is high as well, especially among non-Bitcoin investors, who have been waiting for profits. Prior to the recent market crash, the chances of an altcoin season were on the rise.
If Bitcoin’s price rises in August, altcoins could recover as well. There is often a misconception that altcoins suffer from Bitcoin’s growth, leading to a Bitcoin season.
In reality, altcoins often follow Bitcoin’s lead. For an altcoin season to be confirmed, at least 75% of the top 50 altcoins, excluding stablecoins, need to outperform Bitcoin.
What do the technical indicators say?
On the flip side, Bitcoin’s technical indicators are pointing to a continued bearish trend.
Over the past month, Bitcoin has exhibited an equal number of double top and double bottom patterns. This suggests an even battle between bulls and bears, with neither side prevailing yet.
The On-Balance Volume (OBV) Oscillator shows a negative value, indicating stronger selling pressure compared to buying pressure.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is below the signal line, and both are in negative territory, further signalling bearish momentum.
Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits below the neutral level at 36.69.
These indicators suggest that if Bitcoin fails to break above the immediate resistance level of $60,000, further declines towards the support level of $53,000 are possible.
For a bullish reversal, Bitcoin needs to surpass the $60,000 resistance level and maintain it.
A bullish crossover in the MACD and an increase in the RSI towards the neutral level would confirm a positive shift.
Increased buying volume could potentially lead to a test of the upper Fibonacci band around $76,000.
When it comes to altcoins, about 70% are underperforming compared to Bitcoin over the last 90 days.
The only altcoins in the green, doing better than Bitcoin, include Toncoin ($TON), $PEPE, $BONK, Kaspa ($KAS), Monero ($XMR), and Tron ($TRX). Therefore, if there is any chance for an altcoin season, it will likely be in August.
