With Bitcoin ($BTC) trading just above the $104,000 mark, all eyes are on the upcoming US jobs report scheduled for release this Friday.
Analysts from Bitfinex believe the report could play a pivotal role in determining Bitcoin’s direction in June.
The team stated that if labour data comes in weaker than expected, it could spark optimism around earlier-than-anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Such a shift could act as a tailwind for risk assets like Bitcoin, potentially pushing its price into the $120,000 to $125,000 range.
“We believe if Bitcoin maintains support above $105,000, it could target the $120,000–$125,000 range in June. This will not be catalysed just from the labour market, but it could be a domino in multiple catalysts prompting the Fed to cut rates at a faster than expected pace”, Bitfinex analysts said.
The jobs report is expected to show a slowdown in employment growth. Nonfarm payrolls are forecasted at around 125,000 to 130,000 new positions for May, down from April’s 177,000.
Unemployment is projected to hold steady at 4.2%, while average hourly wages are likely to rise between 0.2% and 0.3% on a monthly basis.
On the flip side, a stronger-than-expected reading could delay any policy easing. Bitfinex warns this may strengthen the US dollar and pressure Bitcoin to the downside.
In such a case, Bitcoin could fall to test support at around $102,000, with potential to dip further toward the $95,000 to $97,000 region.
“On the downside, we see a 95-97K region for any local bottom and see some good accumulation there. Overall, the report’s outcome will be pivotal for lower timeframe traders but will only be a smaller piece of a larger puzzle in the larger scheme of things”, Bitfinex noted.
Currently, interest rates are expected to remain within the 425 to 450 basis point range at least through July, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Market participants now expect any rate cuts to begin around September.
Diverging views: ETF flows slow while IPOs suggest insiders are taking profits
While the potential for a rate cut has market participants watching closely, not everyone is optimistic. BRN Lead Research Analyst, Valentin Fournier, expressed concern over the health of the current crypto rally.
According to Fournier, several red flags are beginning to emerge, including declining inflows into crypto exchange-traded funds and increased IPO activity from major firms in the sector.
“Following Pump.fun’s token sale, Circle announced a $1 billion share sale, valuing the company at $6.9 billion. Meanwhile, Kraken is reportedly planning an IPO later this year”, said Fournier.
He sees these moves as signals that insiders may be attempting to lock in gains, anticipating that markets may not sustain current valuations much longer.
In addition to IPO activity, ETF flows have shown signs of fatigue. Bitcoin ETF inflows fell sharply to $87 million on Wednesday, down from $375 million the day before.
Ethereum ETFs also saw their inflows nearly halved, dropping to $57 million. Fournier sees this weakening as evidence of fading momentum.
Recent market performance appears to reflect this cautious sentiment. Over the past week, Bitcoin fell by 3.5%, Ethereum ($ETH) lost 4.3%, and Solana ($SOL) plunged by 11.8% – making it the worst performer among major cryptocurrencies.
“Despite strong macro data and easing inflation, crypto markets are failing to respond”, said Fournier. “The spike in IPO activity signals frothy valuations and a desire by insiders to exit while prices are still elevated. Combined with shrinking ETF inflows and declining prices, we interpret this as a sign of a tired market running out of fuel”, he added.
He added, “We’re trimming risk and shifting to a more defensive posture as we expect a gradual downside while long-term investors reload.”
One potential positive sign does come from on-chain data. Analysts at CryptoQuant recently highlighted that the Hash Ribbons indicator – a tool that tracks miner activity – has triggered a buy signal.
The metric, based on the 30-day and 60-day moving averages of Bitcoin’s hashrate, typically identifies periods when mining becomes temporarily unprofitable and miners are forced to sell holdings. Historically, these sell-offs have marked accumulation phases preceding recovery.
“The bottom line: this signal is telling you that buying the dip around here is a smart move”, a CryptoQuant analyst concluded.
Still, Bitcoin has remained largely rangebound in recent sessions, slipping to $104,696 at the time of writing. Concerns over US trade tariffs and a weakening economic outlook are adding to investor uncertainty.
After hitting record highs in late May, Bitcoin has struggled to sustain its upward momentum.
Trump-backed Bitcoin ETF initiative adds new political dimension
In a move that could further influence Bitcoin’s trajectory, US President Donald Trump is stepping deeper into the crypto arena. His media platform, Truth Social, is reportedly working on launching a Bitcoin-based ETF.
If successful, the initiative would mark a major development in the integration of digital assets into mainstream finance.
The proposed ETF would allow investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin through traditional stock exchanges without needing to purchase the cryptocurrency directly. The plan aligns with a broader trend of financial products that aim to simplify crypto investment for a wider audience.
Truth Social has previously signalled its interest in blockchain-based projects, but the proposed Bitcoin ETF represents its most ambitious venture to date. It also reflects a shift in Trump’s public stance on digital assets.
Although his administration had mixed views on crypto, Trump now appears to be embracing the technology as part of his political and economic strategy.
“Trump’s interest with Truth Social towards a Bitcoin ETF is not just a commercial action. The political influence of the former president can amplify the visibility and adoption of crypto financial solutions”, an industry source familiar with the project noted.
The ETF project, which is still seeking regulatory approval, underscores how social media and fintech are becoming increasingly interconnected.
If successful, it could bring crypto investing to a broader, less technical audience, potentially supporting Bitcoin’s adoption across new demographic groups.
Being able to invest in Bitcoin through a familiar platform like Truth Social could remove several of the barriers that have traditionally kept retail investors at bay. Furthermore, the involvement of political figures may encourage other institutions to take the sector more seriously.
The project is progressing through regulatory channels, including discussions with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
Partnerships with established fintech and asset management firms are also in place to ensure the product meets required standards and instils confidence in the market.
Meanwhile, prominent crypto voices continue to express long-term optimism. Scott Melker, who is the host of the Wolf of All Streets podcast, recently reiterated his bullish outlook for Bitcoin.
“To go to $150K is a rounding error from here”, said Melker, citing ETF flows and institutional accumulation as key drivers. He added that the current bull market is being shaped by factors such as spot Bitcoin ETF approvals, Trump’s pro-crypto pivot, sovereign wealth fund interest, and growing corporate treasury adoption.
Melker also questioned whether the traditional four-year crypto cycle still applies, arguing that the market is maturing and may now be driven more by gradual, sustained gains than by sharp booms and busts.
“Buy in May, buy in June, buy in July. Use the dips to dollar-cost average – this is a long game”, he advised long-term investors.
As Bitcoin hovers just above key support levels, a mix of economic data, political developments, and institutional dynamics are converging to shape its path.
Whether it breaks higher or slips lower, June promises to be a defining month for the world’s leading cryptocurrency.
