The ongoing US-China tariff war has now placed Bitcoin ($BTC) mining equipment at the centre of trade policy uncertainty.
As geopolitical tensions escalate, the clarity around the import status of mining machines and their components is rapidly diminishing, creating a wave of concern across the global mining industry.
Currently, Bitcoin’s SHA-256 mining algorithm heavily depends on hardware supplied by Bitmain, a Chinese manufacturer.
These machines, primarily advanced ASIC rigs, are either shipped directly to mining sites or used in overseas rental facilities. However, this established supply chain now faces potential disruption.
The situation intensified just as Bitmain prepared to begin shipping its latest and most powerful model, the S21 ASIC miner. This model is considered a game-changer in terms of efficiency and performance.
Industry participants are now rushing to import machines within the 90-day tariff grace period before new trade barriers potentially take effect.
“There’s a significant push to get these machines into the US before the deadline. We started chartering cargo planes out of Malaysia and Thailand to get shipments into the US before the original deadline”, said the Director of Global Logistics and Services at Compass Mining, Vishnu Mackenchery.
These logistical challenges stem from the broader scope of the new US tariffs, which now cover not only Chinese imports but also goods from Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam – key players in the ASIC manufacturing and supply chain. Although some electronics are exempt under the new rules, ASIC miners are not included in that list.
Mining firms like Compass Mining and Luxor Technology are already preparing for impact. Compass sees limited chances of winning tariff exemptions under the current system, while Luxor has committed to keeping users informed about pricing and logistics, hinting that higher costs could soon apply to newer hardware.
Until recently, miners bypassed US tariffs on Chinese goods by rerouting shipments through countries like Malaysia and Thailand. But as these nations are now targeted too, those loopholes are closing quickly.
This may prompt companies to explore new routes, with Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand identified as critical regions affected by the changes.
Despite the uncertainty, the US remains one of the leading countries by raw mining power. Large mining operations, such as those run by Mara Holdings, continue to expand.
The current environment may end up benefiting these firms, especially those that already upgraded their equipment and secured high hashrate before the trade measures tightened.
US-based mining corporations even saw a rise in stock value, while Chinese firms like Canaan Mining dropped sharply – Canaan’s share price fell by 7.2% to $0.26.
FoundryUSA, now the largest mining pool in the US, contributes more than 31% of all blocks, partly due to an inflow of miners from overseas. Combined with domestic growth, the global Bitcoin hashrate has surged to a record level of 890 exahashes per second (EH/s).
Bitcoin market faces mixed signals
While the mining sector navigates trade barriers, Bitcoin’s market performance presents a complex picture. On Thursday, $BTC hovered near $84,000, resisting a decline despite several failed attempts to breach the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) set at $85,000. This comes amid a broader atmosphere of caution in financial markets.
The stability follows hawkish remarks from US Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell. According to reports, Powell warned that rate cuts were not likely soon due to persistent inflation concerns. He also cited tariff escalation as a potential driver of price pressure.
Retail data from the US Census Bureau added to the picture. Retail sales jumped 1.4% in March – the highest increase in over two years – beating expectations and hinting at strong consumer spending. This further supports the Fed’s conservative stance on rate adjustments.
Institutional interest in Bitcoin, however, appears to be weakening. Data from SoSoValue reveals that on Wednesday alone, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of nearly $170 million. This came after only modest inflows earlier in the week, raising concerns about sustained institutional appetite.
Technical indicators reflect this indecisiveness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on Bitcoin’s daily chart remains flat around the neutral 50 mark, signalling that traders are uncertain about the asset’s direction.
Unless $BTC can close consistently above $85,000, the price could retreat toward its next key support at $78,258.
Adding to the complexity is a surprising divergence between Bitcoin and US equities. On Wednesday, Bitcoin showed resilience as traditional tech stocks, particularly those in the Nasdaq 100, suffered significant losses.
While the Nasdaq fell over 3%, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) rose 0.46% and MicroStrategy’s shares were up 0.30%. These moves suggest that Bitcoin may be starting to decouple from equity markets.
When asked about the possibility of the Fed stepping in to support markets during steep declines – a long-standing expectation often referred to as the “Fed put” – Powell responded, “I’m going to say no”.
This statement unsettled traditional investors, yet Bitcoin’s reaction was measured. Unlike equities, which continued to slide, Bitcoin quickly rebounded above $84,000.
Growing comparison between Bitcoin and Gold
Bitcoin’s price movements are increasingly being compared to gold, especially during times of economic turbulence. On-chain analytics firm, Glassnode, reported that both assets have shown strong performance despite the prevailing market volatility.
“Amid this turmoil, the performance of hard assets remains remarkably impressive”, the company said in a recent report.
Gold has already set 12 new record highs in 2025, reaching up to $3,350. Bitcoin, while lagging behind, has managed to maintain relative stability. $BTC dropped to $75,000 during recent volatility but quickly rebounded to $85,000.
Analysts point out that a 30% dip from all-time highs is relatively mild, particularly given that past downturns in similar conditions led to losses exceeding 50%.
Some believe that Bitcoin could follow gold’s trajectory. According to Cryptollica, a prominent crypto analyst, Bitcoin shows similar patterns to gold and may soon break out of its consolidation phase.
“Bitcoin midterm target: 155K $”, the analyst posted on X, suggesting that a move toward six-figure territory remains on the table.
This optimism is supported by a rise in cold storage activity. On 17 April, major players like Galaxy Digital and Abraxas Capital collectively withdrew over $280 million worth of $BTC from exchanges.
Such large-scale withdrawals are typically viewed as bullish, as they reduce market liquidity and indicate long-term holding strategies.
At the same time, Glassnode reported a rise in first-time Bitcoin buyers, another positive sign for near-term price movements. However, long-term holders have largely paused new accumulation, showing a more cautious stance.
Some market indicators support a potential rebound. Bitcoin’s funding rate recently turned positive, suggesting a slight shift in sentiment.
Call options now dominate derivatives markets, with over 169,760 active contracts, showing that many traders are betting on upward price movement.
Nevertheless, concerns remain. Open interest in Bitcoin remains under $36 billion, reflecting a lack of conviction among traders. ETF outflows also continue to mount, with a $171.1 million outflow recorded on 16 April alone – the highest of the week.
Adding further uncertainty, Lookonchain data shows that over $1.26 billion in $BTC was unstaked from Babylon. If even a portion of that capital returns to exchanges, it could trigger selling pressure and hinder Bitcoin’s effort to break through the $85,000 to $86,000 resistance zone.
Still, the broader trend of Bitcoin moving away from equity market correlations could support its long-term transformation into a standalone asset. “Bitcoin is increasingly entering the centre stage as a global neutral reserve asset”, Glassnode stated.
Whether Bitcoin can fully replicate gold’s path and achieve a new all-time high remains to be seen. For now, the cryptocurrency finds itself caught between macroeconomic uncertainty, shifting investor sentiment, and ongoing regulatory hurdles.
