Bitcoin ($BTC) is showing increasing signs of maturity as a global financial asset. Its price volatility has now dropped to its lowest point in more than 500 days, according to recent research.
Volatility in financial markets refers to how much and how quickly an asset’s price moves over time. Lower volatility often means more stability and less risk for investors.
The head of research at K33 Research, Vetle Lunde, said that Bitcoin’s weekly volatility reached a 563-day low on 30 April. This steady price trend suggests Bitcoin is evolving into a more stable financial instrument. It is gaining traction not only among retail investors but also with institutions.
In terms of value, Bitcoin now stands as the seventh-largest asset in the world by market capitalisation. With a total value of $1.87 trillion, it has overtaken Silver, Meta, and Saudi Aramco, based on figures from Companiesmarketcap.
Further strengthening this view is the noticeable drop in Bitcoin exchange deposits. Analysts from Bitfinex said that this decline suggested a reduction in selling pressure and indicates that more holders are choosing long-term storage.
“The divergence between price stability and shrinking exchange balances is critical, especially in a week following a $7.2 billion options expiry and heightened macro volatility”, they said.
In addition, Bitcoin ETF inflows are growing. On 29 April, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF saw investments worth $970 million, marking its second-highest day ever for inflows.
Predictions and institutional interest boost Bitcoin price outlook
The recent market behaviour has brought back bold Bitcoin price predictions. The co-founder of BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, told attendees at Token2049 in Dubai, “Don’t worry, Bitcoin is going to $1 million by 2028”.
He pointed to aggressive monetary policies and growing institutional demand as key drivers. “It’s time to go long everything”, Hayes said, forecasting continued US money printing as a catalyst for Bitcoin’s surge.
Hayes also mentioned on 21 April that upcoming US Treasury buybacks could act as the next major trigger for Bitcoin. These buybacks, where the government repurchases its own bonds to manage debt and interest rates, could boost liquidity and push investors towards assets like Bitcoin.
The CEO of ARK Invest, Cathie Wood, shared similar optimism. She believes the likelihood of Bitcoin exceeding $1.5 million by 2030 has risen. According to Wood, Bitcoin’s risk-return profile now looks very attractive to institutional investors.
“Many institutional investors are now looking at Bitcoin and thinking they need to add it to their asset allocation”, she noted.
Meanwhile, analysis from Axel Adler Jr shows that Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder Year-over-Year Realised Price is currently at 58%. In past market cycles, this figure peaked at over 140%, which lined up with Bitcoin hitting $70,000 and $100,000.
If similar conditions occur again, the current Bitcoin price of $94,000 could climb to around $171,000.
Another widely discussed scenario points to a 50% increase in Bitcoin’s price if a certain pattern from previous years repeats. This pattern is based on three conditions: low financial leverage, higher-than-expected US retail sales, and aggressive monetary policy signals.
Similar setups in July 2021, early 2023, and early 2024 led to price gains of over 50% each time.
Currently, the Bitcoin funding rate is at a low level, and March’s retail sales exceeded expectations. If the US Federal Reserve signals that interest rate cuts won’t come in June, the third condition of this pattern could be met. This would potentially push Bitcoin closer to the $150,000 range.
Still, analysts caution that these are not guaranteed outcomes. Adler reminded readers: “All models are wrong, but some are useful”.
Historically, Bitcoin also tends to move in the opposite direction of the Dollar Index (DXY), meaning a weaker dollar could further support its rise.
What does on-chain data and technical changes say?
Bitcoin continues to recover from earlier setbacks, now trading above $94,000. It remains about 12.7% below its all-time high from January, but several on-chain metrics suggest growing momentum.
One key signal is the rising percentage of Bitcoin supply that is currently in profit. According to CryptoQuant analyst, Darkfost, this metric has risen above 85%, recovering from a dip during the last correction.
Historically, when this figure goes above 90%, markets enter a euphoric phase, often followed by rapid gains and short-term pullbacks.
“Monitoring this metric is important for anticipating potential trend reversals or volatility”, Darkfost said. He noted that during deep bear markets, only 45–50% of the supply was in profit.
Other analysts are watching leverage and RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicators. A custom metric from CryptoQuant, which multiplies RSI by the open interest-to-reserve ratio, shows that while RSI is high, the leverage ratio isn’t as extreme as it was in previous bull runs.
Another CryptoQuant analyst, Crypto Lion, said this could mean the current Bitcoin rally is being driven more by spot buying than by speculative leverage.
Meanwhile, a new technical proposal is causing debate within the Bitcoin development community. Developer, Peter Todd, has proposed removing the limits on OP_RETURN, a part of Bitcoin’s code that restricts the amount of non-financial data that can be stored in transactions. Currently capped at 83 bytes, Todd argues this is outdated.
“Bitcoin Core shouldn’t enforce arbitrary limits that are ineffective and even harmful”, Todd said. He explained that many users already bypass this limit through technical workarounds.
However, not everyone agrees. Developer, Jason Hughes, said the change would fundamentally alter what Bitcoin is meant to be. “This is far more than a small technical change”, he warned.
Another Bitcoin Core developer, Pieter Wuille, acknowledged that while the demand for such changes is real, it also brings risks of increased transaction fees.
Despite the disagreement, some developers are moving forward with a pull request for the change. Supporters say this would allow Bitcoin to support more diverse use cases beyond payments.
As Bitcoin navigates price predictions, macroeconomic patterns, and technical debates, it continues to mature as a global asset.
Whether it reaches $100,000, $150,000, or $1 million, its rising institutional interest, reduced volatility, and changing on-chain metrics are shaping the path forward for the world’s leading cryptocurrency.
