Bitcoin’s ($BTC) price once again climbed above the $104,000 mark this week, following what many analysts are calling a notable shift in market sentiment.
According to cryptocurrency market analyst, Dan Gambardello, the move could indicate the early stages of a broader rally, with altcoins finally showing signs of life after a prolonged lull.
In his latest analysis, Gambardello focused on Ethereum ($ETH), which he describes as one of the most critical charts in the crypto market right now. The world’s second-largest cryptocurrency is currently testing the lower limit of a multi-year triangle pattern.
After breaking down from this formation earlier, it now appears that Ethereum might be on the verge of what Gambardello calls a “busted pattern” reversal.
“This entire move, a multi-year triangle, we’ve tracked, right? The breakout to the downside, the speculation that this would be a fake breakout with a pullback to the triangle itself, a busted pattern in play, and it’s never been more in play than right now”, Gambardello said, outlining his view of the evolving technical setup.
Ethereum recently crossed above the $2,500 level, placing it just beneath the triangle’s lower boundary. Gambardello points out that this key area also aligns with the 200-day moving average, which currently sits around $2,700.
The confluence of these technical indicators creates what he calls a crucial resistance zone, one that will likely determine Ethereum’s next significant move.
“This chart is so important, even if you don’t hold Ethereum, because this is a leading indicator for altcoins”, he added. Gambardello suggests that if Ethereum successfully reclaims the pattern and sustains above it, the possibility of a $10,000 Ethereum during this cycle becomes increasingly plausible.
Zooming out, Gambardello notes that the broader altcoin market is exhibiting patterns reminiscent of previous cycle bottoms. He highlighted similarities in the total crypto market capitalisation, excluding Bitcoin, to the bear market lows of 2015, 2018, and the Covid crash in 2020.
According to Gambardello, these moments of extreme fear often precede large-scale rallies. “Through the recent weeks, how often were we just talking about how these high fear events, we’ve seen them before, and it’s almost like they always play out the same way”, Gambardello reflected.
Gambardello also keeps a close eye on Bitcoin dominance, which is currently pressing against the upper limits of a Fibonacci range on the monthly chart.
He notes the appearance of potential bearish divergence in momentum oscillators, a pattern that has historically foreshadowed Bitcoin dominance peaks, often followed by altcoin rallies.
Bitcoin’s bullish metrics reinforced by whale accumulation
Bitcoin’s recent price movements have been supported by a range of on-chain and technical indicators that point toward an ongoing bullish cycle. CryptoQuant analyst, Crypto Dan, highlighted the rising realised price of Bitcoin as a key metric reflecting this strength.
Realised price measures the average purchase price of Bitcoin in circulation, and its upward trend typically signals accumulating bullish momentum rather than impending downturns.
“The reason the realised price is rising is that more and more market participants are purchasing Bitcoin at higher prices”, Crypto Dan said. He interprets this as “evidence that Bitcoin is still in an uptrend within its current cycle”.
This bullishness is being further strengthened by institutional inflows, particularly through spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Companies like Strategy recently added 13,390 BTC to their reserves for more than $1.3 billion, while Metaplanet also entered the fray, acquiring 1,271 BTC for around $126.7 million.
This ongoing capital influx has not only lifted market sentiment but also significantly improved key on-chain indicators.
Glassnode data reveals that Bitcoin’s illiquid supply—held by investors unlikely to sell—has reached a cycle high of 14 million BTC. Santiment further reports that whales have accumulated 83,000 BTC in the past month alone.
Analysts generally view such accumulation patterns as strong indicators of investor confidence in future price appreciation.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin continues to show resilience. Analyst Crazzyblockk of CQ noted that Binance’s Taker Buy-Sell Ratio remains elevated, suggesting consistent buying pressure, while funding rates across major exchanges have stayed positive.
Pseudonymous market watcher, Mr. Wall Street, even forecast that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 before the current cycle ends.
Presently, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $103,468, down 0.9% from yesterday, with the coin fluctuating between an intraday high of $104,536 and a low of $101,109, according to CoinGecko data.
Despite the small daily decline, Bitcoin has posted nearly 10% gains in the past week and 22% over the past month. The cryptocurrency is now just under 5% away from its all-time high of $108,786.
Investment products have seen robust inflows as well. CoinShares reported that over $880 million entered crypto funds last week, marking the fourth consecutive week of net inflows.
Bitcoin products accounted for $867 million of these, largely through US-listed ETFs, which have gathered nearly $63 billion since January, surpassing their February record.
Ethereum products, however, attracted just $1.5 million during the same period, indicating that investors continue to view Bitcoin as the safer bet for now.
Sui, in contrast, drew $11.7 million last week, overtaking both Ethereum and Solana in new inflows.
Macroeconomic catalysts and shifting market dynamics
While the on-chain metrics and technical patterns point to bullish conditions, Gambardello and others also believe that macroeconomic factors could act as short-term catalysts for the crypto market.
Gambardello referenced ongoing developments in US-China trade talks, suggesting they are having a noticeable impact on market sentiment.
“Right now, the tariff deal between US and China is very much in play, it’s on the table”, he said, citing a social media post that described a “very good meeting today with China and Switzerland” and mentioned a “total reset, negotiated in a friendly, but constructive manner”.
According to prediction markets data shared by Gambardello from PolyMarket, the odds of a US-China trade deal being finalised before June rose sharply from 21% on May 8 to 67% within just two days, following reports of progress in negotiations.
This possible catalyst coincides with what Gambardello calls favourable macro conditions, including signs of a Federal Reserve policy pivot and an expansion in the global M2 money supply.
He noted, “We’re talking about the Fed monetary policy pivot, we’re talking about global M2 money supply and liquidity on a global scale has been just seeing higher highs and higher lows”.
Santiment’s latest data shows that while large investors continue accumulating Bitcoin aggressively, retail investors are reducing their exposure.
In the past 30 days, whale and shark tier wallets (holding 10–10,000 BTC) added 83,105 BTC, while smaller wallets with less than 0.1 BTC reduced their holdings by 387 BTC.
Santiment highlighted that these were “major movements relative to how much they hold in total”, suggesting a divergence in behaviour between whales and retail investors.
Despite this, the firm remains bullish, forecasting that “with the aggressive accumulation from these large wallets, it may be a matter of time until Bitcoin’s coveted $110K all-time high level is breached”.
Galaxy Asset Management also provided data reinforcing this outlook. Their report noted that Bitcoin gained around 11% since President Trump’s “Liberation Day tariffs” were announced in April, outperforming most mainstream assets except for tech stocks and gold.
Furthermore, Bitcoin’s volatility has decreased significantly. Over the last 10 trading days, its realised volatility fell to 43.86, now sitting below that of the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500—a rare occurrence for the traditionally volatile asset.
US-listed Bitcoin ETFs attracted $2.9 billion in net inflows in April, reversing prior outflows and suggesting a structural shift in market dynamics.
Chris Rhine of Galaxy remarked, “Bitcoin as a non-sovereign asset means an investor doesn’t need the full faith or tax basis of a nation to support the integrity of the asset.”
Galaxy’s Ian Kolman added that Bitcoin’s “supply and demand dynamics are solidifying its place as a mature digital store of value”. This growing maturity is being accelerated by institutional interest, particularly through ETF inflows.
Santiment and Galaxy both agree that easing geopolitical tensions, such as a US-China trade agreement, could remove key market uncertainties and further support Bitcoin’s upward trajectory.
